To Rebalance the World, Exporters Need to Start Spending

If you wake up early in Frankfurt, you can drive to Madrid in time to have a late beer, without encountering a border crossing or a currency change along the way. Yet you will traverse an imaginary border between economic miracle and financial catastrophe, between booming Germany, the world’s second-largest exporter, and crisis-ridden Spain, a country so debt-troubled that it is in danger of crashing the euro.

You may notice that many more truckloads of German goods are headed through France to Spain than are going in the opposite direction – a one-way flow of goods and services that is the root cause of this continent-wide crisis, the reason why debt piled up along the Mediterranean coast in the first place.

Europe is now in a war, possibly unwinnable, against that debt, much as the United States has spent four years battling crisis levels of private-sector debt rooted in its trade imbalances with China. The root problem, however, is not borrowing or banks, but one of the most dangerous dilemmas of our age: People who live in exporting nations don’t spend money. They’re not paid enough to buy imports, so inequality soars and debt piles up.

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The French are the Globalizers, Not the Globalized

Paris

I’ve spent the week in cobblestoned squares, listening to French presidential candidates argue that their country’s way of life is threatened by forces from beyond its borders. It’s a popular refrain these days: As economies falter, people fear the economic and human waves sweeping in from beyond.

President Nicolas Sarkozy has led the way, pledging to reintroduce trade protectionism, reinstitute passport checks and cut immigration. His challenger François Hollande has also suggested more protectionist policies and less immigration. As a result, four out of five French voters now believe that globalization is bad for their livelihoods, and that borders should be closed to foreign investment and immigration.

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As I listened to these warnings, I couldn’t help thinking about how my week had begun in London.

Photo of Nicolas Sarkozy’s final Paris campaign rally by Doug Saunders

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China’s Village Myth Is Damaging Progress, Families, Food Supply

Beijing

The peasant villager, in a straw hat and weathered hands, has long been at the heart of China’s self-mythology. Chinese tend to think of themselves as a nation of villagers, some of whom have been living in the city for generations, but whose soul remains located in a cluster of wooden huts amid the paddies. It’s a vision that infuses their art and culture and, sometimes tragically, their politics.

That village myth is increasingly misleading – and to the extent that Beijing is trying to keep it true, damaging China’s progress.

China boasted that it became an urban-majority country last year, with more urbanites than villagers. Many people here are well aware that this is untrue: That milestone was passed years ago and as many as 200 million of those half-billion “villagers” have been living and working in cities for years.

They fill the big cities of China’s southern and eastern coasts, providing the largest source of industrial labour. They are known as the “floating population,” because they are legally villagers, unable to send their kids to school in the city, buy houses or settle, trapped halfway between rural and urban life.

China won’t let them become urban citizens – in part for macroeconomic reasons (peasant savings are a cornerstone of China’s industrial capitalization) and partly because villagers don’t actually own their officially collectivized land, so they have no reason or ability to sell it.

I spent an evening talking with Qin Hui, a Beijing historian renowned for his outspoken criticism of policies. He knows peasant life intimately: During Mao’s Cultural Revolution in the 1970s, he was one of 20 million people who were force-ruralized. He spent eight years in unpaid peasant labour and near-starvation.

Today he says he is deeply worried about an even larger group of people forced to be peasants.

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Photo of Sanfengzhen village, Sichuan, by Doug Saunders

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Avoiding the Olympic Trap: London’s 2012 Challenge

London

The history of the Olympics is a history of failures. Every four years, one city is confronted with the world’s largest sporting event, and usually at least one thing goes terribly wrong: Debt, crowding, security threats or bad public image have sent most Olympiads deep into the bronze.

With 100 days to go until London lights the eternal flame on July 27 to kick off the 30th Olympic Games, the city has entered its panic phase. Thousands of workers are on the streets repairing Victorian water mains that could burst, installing discreet surveillance cameras and putting bright flower boxes in front of some of Britain’s dingier public buildings. The goal, seven years in the making, is to avoid the pitfalls of previous Olympics. They have three months to avoid these traps.

MONTREAL 1976: DEBT LOAD

Olympics are preposterously expensive and rarely generate enough income to recoup their hefty public-sector investment. In some cases, the costs are ruinous. The Athens Games, many believe, triggered the beginnings of the Greek debt crisis. But when out-of-control Olympic debt comes up, the city most often mentioned is Montreal.

“The Olympics can no more lose money than a man can have a baby,” Montreal mayor Jean Drapeau confidently declared in 1970, when his city won the 1976 Games. Those would prove to be edible words: Montrealers would end up paying extra taxes to cover the $1.6-billion debt for the construction of the “Big O” stadium (which wasn’t finished in time for the Games) right through to 2006. In some ways they’re still paying, as the crumbling stadium, which has not had a major sports team for the past eight years, remains a tax burden.

Londoners can ill afford such a burden. Britain is already in the midst of large-scale debt-crisis management, and Prime Minister David Cameron is in the midst of a major cost-cutting program. So his government had been careful to ensure that much of the £9.3-billion budget could be covered through the sale and future use of Olympic assets.

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China’s New Social Media Bypasses the Party Line

Shanghai

On Thursday morning, a man came to my Shanghai hotel to inform me that I had become the latest victim of Bo Xilai. The Communist Party leader of the inland city of Chongqing had been deposed weeks earlier in what was either a corruption crackdown, a power struggle with premier Wen Jiabao, or an ideological banishment of Mr. Bo’s neo-Maoist policies. On Wednesday night, news had broken that Premier Bo faced corruption charges and his wife had been accused of murder. A flurry of public discussion followed, then a crackdown. It apparently included me.

My lecture that night had been cancelled, the university official said: “It’s political. They’re worried that you’ll discuss Bo Xilai.” I have been touring China this week to give talks about my book on urbanization, and my lectures have drawn on my research in Chongqing. Audience members have asked me scores of questions about taboo topics including local democracy, property rights, the Arab revolutions and, yes, Bo Xilai.

It had been fairly amazing that my book, which criticizes Chinese policies, had received a government licence to be published in China; it wasn’t surprising that a lecture would be cancelled.

But then the new China showed its face. By the end of the day, hundreds of people had learned of the lecture’s cancellation. That’s because it had become a topic on Weibo, the Chinese social-media service that combines Twitter’s immediacy with Facebook’s mass audience. More than 300 million Chinese regularly usie the most popular Weibo brand, and another 200 million have access.

By the evening, thanks in part to Weibo, a large private bookshop had agreed to be my host. About 400 students came, surrounded me in a big circle, and took part in a late-night talk that was far more frankly political than the original lecture would have been.

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